Through 55 games, the Angels are 9 games over .500 at 32-23. They have also outscored their opponents by only 9 runs this season - an average of 4.25-4.09.

While on the surface this looks good since the Angels are winning close games, it foreshadows a bigger problem. Eventually the numbers will catch up and the Angels win/loss record will become much closer to .500.

Bill James, baseball stat geek extraordinarie, has a formula which works quite well to predict a teams record based on runs scored and runs allowed.

The formula is rs*rs/(rs*rs + ra*ra).

Using this formula the Angels should have a win/loss record of 29-26. The A's, who are currently two games behind the Angels, have an expected win/loss record of 33-20.

I realize that 'expected runs' don't mean anything, but the point I'm trying to make is that the Angels have overachieved thus far and unless they start outscoring their opponents by more runs, I expect Oakland to overtake them for first place.

How accurate is this stat?

Here is a look at expected wins vs actual wins the past few years for the Angels. In the past seven years, the difference has never been more than four games.

2007 - 94 actual wins, 90 expected wins
2006 - 89 actual wins, 85 expected wins
2005 - 95 actual wins, 95 expected wins
2004 - 92 actual wins, 91 expected wins
2003 - 77 actual wins, 80 expected wins
2002 - 99 actual wins, 103 expected wins
2001 - 75 actual wins, 77 expected wins